I usually find it's a problem with the Java installation, not the updater itself. When it gets this bad I have to resort to:
- Make a note of all your ignored files, selected variants and settings if you can.
- Uninstall all copies of Java from the machine.
- Remove the Java directories from Program Files and Program Files (x86).
- Delete the updater's desktop icon if it's still there.
- Reboot the machine.
- Reinstall the latest version(s) of Java. If on 64-bit Windows, install the 32-bit versions first and then install the 64-bit packages.
- Configure Java to not auto-update itself. Do updates manually.
- Reboot the machine.
- Go to updater.pala.de and launch the application. Make sure to open the .jnlp file, don't save it.
- Let the updater install itself and create it's icon.
When Java needs updated, download and install the new versions manually. Do them in the same order, 32-bit first and then 64-bit if you're on 64-bit Windows.